The Invention of Tomorrow

June 15, 2022
Why the ability to imagine the future is a cornerstone of human survival and development. How do we think ahead? How do we incorporate new information into our plans? Is our foresight trustworthy? Australian academics Suddendorf, Redshaw, and Bulley pull together a wide range of scientific disciplines to explain the nature of foresight, beginning with humanity's prehistoric past. They examine how the capacity of early humans to look ahead--from knowing when food would become available to carrying a bag of stones to ward off predators--allowed the species to thrive. As civilization developed, foresight became even more important; it was critical to forecast tides, seasonal changes, and planting and harvesting times. As the authors show, complex foresight is a uniquely human quality. A few animals, such as dolphins and apes, have some capacity to look ahead, but it is limited, and their ability to communicate with others does not match that of humans. "To live in the present, our brain must continually forecast what's coming next....Prediction is not only involved in perception and motor coordination but also manifests in our capacity to run simulations of tomorrow and beyond," write the authors. Research suggests that most people develop reliable foresight at around the age of 4, but our emotions often interfere with our rationality. One reason is "optimism bias," which causes us to overestimate the chances of good outcomes. In fact, our foresight is often wrong, and the authors entertainingly recount predictions that went hilariously awry. Foresight is largely a matter of extrapolation, and despite challenges, we can take precautions, such as insuring our house, putting aside money for an unexpected crisis or, on a larger scale, building things like the Global Seed Vault. Sprinkled throughout the book are well-placed moments of deadpan humor to leaven the authoritative research. A fascinating perspective on what it means to be human, told with a clear voice and an expansive canvas.

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July 18, 2022
Psychology researchers Suddendorf (The Gap), Redshaw, and Bulley deliver a stimulating if occasionally muddled volume on the human capacity for foresight. The authors detail scientific studies, including their own, to argue that powers of prediction are an essential part of human development and explain why humans have achieved species dominance. Humans, the authors suggest, differ from other animals in their ability to teach, which requires “anticipating what a pupil needs to grasp,” and innovate, which involves “recognizing the future utility of solutions.” These skills enable the species to be in a constant state of improvement, the authors contend, describing how written language emerged out of the rise of agriculture in Sumer. Suddendorf, Redshaw, and Bulley compare human abilities with animal research findings that reveal some crows can anticipate what tools they’ll need to operate a special food dispenser and that chimpanzees can think about physical problems (e.g., how to retrieve food dropped near their enclosure) even when not directly observing them. However, the authors struggle to make clear the boundaries between human and animal intelligence, striving to delineate a more rigid separation than their evidence suggests. The material on human innovation is more convincing and offers some meaty ideas sure to captivate popular science readers. Fans of Steven Pinker will want to check this out.